Widescreen Gaming Forum

These estimates are not hard to make at all. Just look at any torrent tracker - try to find any console game that has even 1% as many IP's connected as its PC counterpart. And I think you're underestimating how valid estimates are - practically every study and statistic ever made are "just estimates."

Unfortunately some P2P figures are completely off since companies got the right to manipulate those as much as they want however they want ...
for example there is an overestimated number of users since some servers report wrong numbers to fool people ...

Crysis got overwhelmingly positive reception, lots of awards... and millions of pirates wanted to have the full version of this "crappy game" for some reason, and not just the demo. I don't think it's fair or honest to dismiss it as a bad game solely in order to justify an argument. And like I said earlier, the game runs fine on modest systems as long as you don't crank the settings all the way up.

awards & notes doesn't make a game any good. In fact some actors in the game industry are beginning to put the whole notation & A+ games system in question, since this doesn't translate in sales at all... Also some game websites are trying to put aside the notation system by not giving any note. (I don't fully agree with this but nice effort nonetheless)
To go back to crysis, I'm not the only one to think that crysis brings nothing to the FPS table except its graphical appearance...

Making MILLIONS of pirate copies from just one source and distributing them all over the world is quite new. Yes, audio tapes were copied back in the day, but there were limitations. If you wanted to "pirate" an audio tape, you had to personally know someone with a copy and who was willing to make one for you. That's why game piracy is threatening in a way that it never was before.

I don't agree. When I was younger I had access to more pirated games than now that I have an internet connection. Moreover it was worse since when I had an Amiga 500, I knew a bunch of people with very very large game collections & a whole pirating business (money involved).

You really think that if millions of pirates were prevented from pirating a game, not a single one of them would choose to purchase instead?

Of course not but the question is not really in this terms.
The question is rather : since it's impossible to prevent millions of pirates to pirate a game, how can I spend my anti-piracy budget to something which will make my game sell better while keeping a cheaper non-intrusive anti-piracy system in place so as not to prevent potential sales from being put off by the anti-piracy system...

It's got to be enforced too.

I think traffic tickets are a good model. If the state catches you pirating, which isn't hard to do at all, they summarily fine you. Nothing especially harsh, and minimal drain on the courts, but even the smallest penalty is enough of a deterrent to make most of us at least try not to commit the offense, if there's a significant chance of being caught.

It's got to be enforced too.

I think traffic tickets are a good model. If the state catches you pirating, which isn't hard to do at all, they summarily fine you. Nothing especially harsh, and minimal drain on the courts, but even the smallest penalty is enough of a deterrent to make most of us at least try not to commit the offense, if there's a significant chance of being caught.

I agree it got to be enforced in some way or another
but well maybe ... don't really know about traffic tickets model.

Though how can you pretend that catching someone pirating isn't hard to do ? Unless the police goes at your home & checks what you got, there's no real way to catch a pirate online ...

Unless you think alike the recent french laws ? which basically thinks that IP = person which is ... just wrong

Unfortunately some P2P figures are completely off since companies got the right to manipulate those as much as they want however they want ...

So basically you're accusing companies of manipulating their statistics simply on the grounds that they can. That's just wonderful and fair.

awards & notes doesn't make a game any good.

The point is that your "Crysis failed because it sucked" argument is unfair and dishonest. It got more than just awards - it got overwhelmingly positive reviews across the board, from both professionals and gamers alike. And millions of pirates wanted to play it. Not just for the graphics, which the demo provided, but the entire game.

To go back to crysis, I'm not the only one to think that crysis brings nothing to the FPS table except its graphical appearance...

But you are in the minority.

I don't agree. When I was younger I had access to more pirated games than now that I have an internet connection.

Your personal habits simply are not a good representation of the big picture. And the big picture is that piracy is ridiculously more rampant today than it was in the days of Amiga.

The question is rather : since it's impossible to prevent millions of pirates to pirate a game,

But it's not impossible. Like I said, there are four approaches that have gotten pretty good results.

unless the police goes at your home & checks what you got, there's no real way to catch a pirate online

Sure you can. People get caught downloading kiddie porn online all the time. It's not hard. Similar tactics could be used to catch pirates online, only it would be even simpler. You'd just need to skip the whole deal with confiscating the computer equipment, since it's a lesser crime and therefore needs less proof for a charge (sort of like how the cops don't confiscate your car for running a red light). At this very moment, I am looking at a list of 4000 IP addresses that are pirating Prototype. To the state, this is potentially as good as almost 4000 license plates of cars that are speeding.

So basically you're accusing companies of manipulating their statistics simply on the grounds that they can. That's just wonderful and fair.

Not exactly since the ones doing the statistics aren't the ones manipulating the data to fool people ...

But it's not impossible. Like I said, there are four approaches that have gotten pretty good results.

I'm not quite sure to agree with the analysis of the four approaches and why exactly the piracy was lower to this or that game ...
It's easy to be fooled by numbers & how to interpret them ...
I see that so often ...like for example random film company => "we lost 3.2 billion in piracy", just because they multiplied the piracy figure by income ...
this is just wrong since at least a part of it won't have bought said film in any case ...

And I'm a minority ho yeah right nothing to add to that...

note that I am part of a sort of "computer club" (don't know how to say that better) with hundreds of people of all sorts in my town and that this club is national.

unless the police goes at your home & checks what you got, there's no real way to catch a pirate online

Sure you can. People get caught downloading kiddie porn online all the time. It's not hard. Similar tactics could be used to catch pirates online, only it would be even simpler. You'd just need to skip the whole deal with confiscating the computer equipment, since it's a lesser crime and therefore needs less proof for a charge (sort of like how the cops don't confiscate your car for running a red light). At this very moment, I am looking at a list of 4000 IP addresses that are pirating Prototype. To the state, this is potentially as good as almost 4000 license plates of cars that are speeding.

ok so IP = person, hey you know what ? an IP can be spoofed ho yeah no joke ! any computer can also be part of a bot network without knowledge of it... and wifi connections are the easiest to hack into ...

to catch people with kiddie porn they get a lot of proofs then get in people's home to get ultimate proof => the computer


you can also use a proxy or even a VPN to change your IP :roll:

Not exactly since the ones doing the statistics aren't the ones manipulating the data to fool people ...

You're still accusing companies of manipulating data without any reasonable grounds.

I'm not quite sure to agree with the analysis of the four approaches and why exactly the piracy was lower to this or that game ...

Because games that use one of those four approaches consistently have much lower than average amounts of piracy.

I see that so often ...like for example random film company => "we lost 3.2 billion in piracy", just because they multiplied the piracy figure by income ...

Why do you think that's how they estimate it? You're taking it for granted that they use an erroneous method so you can disprove it. This is also known as a straw man.

ok so IP = person, hey you know what ? an IP can be spoofed ho yeah no joke !

If the majority of P2P users spoofed their IPs, then P2P wouldn't work on a large scale. *Somebody* has to know what your real IP address is in order to send you any data.

wifi connections are the easiest to hack into

Unsecured wifi connections, yes. Secure ones aren't so simple.

to catch people with kiddie porn they get a lot of proofs then get in people's home to get ultimate proof => the computer

They don't need all that much proof to get a search warrant. A little bit of monitoring P2P traffic is proof enough. And like I said, with the lesser charge of piracy, confiscating the computer would be unnecessary.

you can also use a proxy or even a VPN to change your IP

Which would, like IP spoofing, cause large scale P2P to be unsustainable if used by most of the users.

You're still accusing companies of manipulating data without any reasonable grounds.

it's not like I invented anything, it did not go out of my hat
some companies are hired to put junk on the P2P networks, it's no big secret ... among methods used are wrong servers which put out wrong numbers to fool P2P users...
then you got the statistic company which compile all this data without accounting for the first company junk (since they don't even know about it, obvious enough)...

Because games that use one of those four approaches consistently have much lower than average amounts of piracy.

yeah and what type of protection they use , is it invasive or not ?...
what type of support do users get from these small companies ?
do users get free big updates in some of these small companies ?

you seem to assume the only reason for less pirating is the said four approaches ...
when multiple different reasons could each explain their results.

I see that so often ...like for example random film company => "we lost 3.2 billion in piracy", just because they multiplied the piracy figure by income ...

Why do you think that's how they estimate it? You're taking it for granted that they use an erroneous method so you can disprove it. This is also known as a straw man.

well it's easy enough when they announce at the same time the number of downloads then you can relate amount/downloads = loss per download

ok so IP = person, hey you know what ? an IP can be spoofed ho yeah no joke !

If the majority of P2P users spoofed their IPs, then P2P wouldn't work on a large scale. *Somebody* has to know what your real IP address is in order to send you any data.

the majority has nothing to do with that
is it acceptable that a few poor sobs get wrongly fined without any way to get out of it to you ?
if yes then ok
for me it's not acceptable.

The current way to get proofs against a pirate is good enough. (more or less same method than for kiddie porn)

wifi connections are the easiest to hack into

Unsecured wifi connections, yes. Secure ones aren't so simple.

secured ones are the minority in some countries, and even secured ones are hackable the magazine "Quechoisir" which published the way to do it (verified by an official, for which I don't know the name in english) as a way to proove that IP alone is not enough.

to catch people with kiddie porn they get a lot of proofs then get in people's home to get ultimate proof => the computer

They don't need all that much proof to get a search warrant. A little bit of monitoring P2P traffic is proof enough. And like I said, with the lesser charge of piracy, confiscating the computer would be unnecessary.

then I guess it's different where you live

you can also use a proxy or even a VPN to change your IP

Which would, like IP spoofing, cause large scale P2P to be unsustainable if used by most of the users.
maybe or maybe not depends how it's done exactly

the "TOR project" type of way is unsustainable & the TOR network way too slow... but that doesn't mean it's not doable ...

ISPs in the Netherlands are currently (as of 1 July) required to store all traffic data of all their customers. This includes their personal data linked with where they've been online, and what they've emailed, stuff like that. Afaik.

Easy to use for the purpose of verification of proof that would be insufficient on its own (like a mere IP address).

Oh, just read it's a European thing, just some countries are still opposing.